[saberdancer]

You shouldn't speculate about 1. especially as this is a virus that is new. It didn't have wave after wave where the "deadly" strains would lose out in evolution.

Death rate in London and Kent didn't seem very different to other affected areas which would imply that the virus has same severity of symptoms but it is easier to transmit/contract.

[irq11]

It’s not remotely clear that this strain is easier to transmit. It’s entirely hypothesis and speculation.

We have seen strains quickly accelerate because of founder effect several times in 2020, and particular strains dominate in particular regions. The experimental studies that are needed to confirm a claim of evolutionary advantage have not been done, and the observational evidence is weak.

Those who would panic about this should be just as circumspect in their their claims as those who would dismiss it.

[Jabbles]

It is a hypothesis with a small prior, yes.

But when considering the data - that the strain has grown faster than all others in the UK at the time - the likelihood becomes significant. Not certain, but not worthy of your casual dismissal.

You dismiss their observational evidence as weak, but offer no further analysis. Please do so.

[irq11]

“Hypothesis with a small prior” is a fancy way of saying “speculation”.

There are literally dozens of strains on nextstrain that have rapidly grown to be the predominant strain in a region. That alone is not a strong indication of anything other than founder effect.

[jibbit]

I'm guessing you're not living in Kent right now?