[throwaway9191a]

I've got 3 in the bag that match your #2 experience. I would love to know how common this outcome is.

My overwhelming experience is that companies rarely "fail". A good idea just chugs along with an owner making well into the 6 figures. Somebody else (like me) built the infrastructure that allows the owner to outsource the maintenance development work.

This became my reason for doing CTO as a service type solutions. A lot of people were doing this 5 years ago or so, which makes me think your #2 is fairly common.