[lbeltrame]

> I think most people seem to be underestimating just how bad this is.

No, there is no reason to panic yet. Concern, perhaps, but not panic.

There are a truckload of confounding factors in the middle, including potential "founder effects" (when a variant becomes dominant because it is the first to take hold, and just outruns the others out of larger starting numbers).

There is not yet solid proof of "70% more transmissible" given that all the data there are is the SAGE meeting minutes. We don't know from where the data came from, and how the estimations were made. There are huge uncertainties.

Until the biological analyses are done, one needs to keep their cool. Sadly, that wasn't what the UK government did.

[gns24]

Founder effects don't explain why this new strain took over as the dominant strain in London.

Even if we suppose the chance of it being as bad as suggested is only 50%, we should panic now, rather than waiting until we have solid proof and risk having a public health disaster.

Personally I suspect the UK didn't panic in its announcement and that this situation had been under surveillance for some weeks.

[lbeltrame]

The confidence intervals go as low as 37% and as high as ~120%. That's a load of uncertainty.

Also the latest document by PHE highlights also the limitations of the current data behind modeling (PCR negative for the S gene, but positive for the others). At this point the good questions haven't been answered yet.