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by IfOnlyYouKnew 2008 days ago
They played it save when designing the protocol. Better to err on that side, than to risk failure because you chose a dose that's too low.

Given that's what they trialled, there really isn't a mechanism that would allow either them or the FDA to change the protocol from what was tested.

Yes, this is annoying. You can make that educated guess and not show up for your second shot and you'll probably help someone.

But medicine has a long history of people being rather convinced of theories that made an awful lot of sense and killed an awful lot of people.

At some point, they noticed. The double-blind trial became not just the preferred method or something like that. It became absolute gospel. Anything else is considered the GOTO of injecting people with... stuff: Even if it's exactly what you believe is needed right now, it's just not going to happen.

See also: "masks don't work" ( = "even though it sounds like a good idea, there is just as much actual evidence for their usefulness in preventing viral diseases right now, January 2020, as there is for crystal healing. Give us a month and we'll have data")

2 comments

"But medicine has a long history of people being rather convinced of theories that made an awful lot of sense and killed an awful lot of people."

That works for both sides, both the true believers and the skeptics. Both sides are absolutely convinced that they are right and the other side's belief will kill people. At least one side is wrong. Both have their reasons, both appeal to history, both appeal to science. It is a confusing time to live.

There is a lot of real evidence that masks do work

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

My impression is that the consensus is reasonably strong that masks work in and of themselves, that is - they do act as a physical barrier against transmission, but, most infections are happening at e.g. family gatherings and in households, so the actual effects of masks writ large are more muted than proponents argue. Basically, it's like saying seat-belts work, which is obviously very true, but regarding them in a kind of isolation that forgets about setting speed limits.
Could it be that most transmissions happen with family and not shopping simply because the majority wears masks?

In countries with actually working contact tracing you have regular cases from restaurants and doctor offices. For example

Quoting myself: right now, January 2020,

(meaning: I was trying to reenact a scene from the beginning of (gestures around) all this)

That paper: June 2020