[dxbydt]

If you want "fundamental" innovation, you simply aren't going to get it in a jiffy.

Imagine if a person dead over a 100 years ago woke up today. What present day technologies would he have no trouble recognizing ? 1.Movie Projector. 2.Bulb. 3.Car.

That's about it. We use pretty much the same 35mm format and film projector that was originally invented some 110 years ago( George Lucas's constant lament ). We drive around in cars powered by the internal combustion engine invented a 100 years back. We come home to a dark house and turn on the bulb invented a 100 years ago.

If you allow some leeway for time, you can add a few more "genuine" innovations - Air Conditioning, Transistor/IntegratedCircuit, Antennas/SW/MW/AM/FM, ...

The rest is just fluff. That's always going to be the case, unless you have some major genetic mutation that'll cause all of us to wake up tomorrow & fly away in our flying cars or jetpacks we rig up in the basement toolshed.

[JWLong]

They used to call lightbulbs, airplanes, and combustion engines "fluff". Don't make the mistake of assuming that you can see all ends... Even the wise cannot see all ends (keeping the movie references alive). As others have stated, what people are working on today as side projects and hobbies will pave the way for the breakthrough's of tomorrow.

[thorwed123]

Drugs, Transpants, Chemotherapy, Vaccines, chemical fertilizers, nuclear energy, internet, Wireless, Jet Engines, Petroleum Cracking, Plastics, polymeric fibers, lasers .......

[nod]

1. You are being rude. Don't write anything that you wouldn't say to someone's face.

2. I believe you completely misread the parent's point: that there are only a few technologies that are 100 years old. (Not sure what that means with regards to the 'transformative' argument, but still...)

[dxbydt]

Thanks. The "only 3 innovations have lasted over 100 years" premise isn't original. I first heard it at a graduation ceremony and it made a lasting impact on me. Ofcourse the speaker was very charismatic & way more dramatic than I am :)

But the phrase keeps popping up in several places. For instance, in Hedgehogging, Barton Biggs goes to a pre-2000 tech conference where they famously declare that technology innovations will propel the Dow to 20,000 in 1 year! Biggs calls bullshit & points out that genuine innovation like Air Conditioning & steam engines are once-in-a-lifetime event. He is asked if the internet is a "fundamental" innovation & he disagrees. He becomes a laughing stock. The next year the Dow drops 2000 points.

[shadowsun7]

It pops up in Nicholas Nassem Taleb's works, too: "the technologies that run the world today (like the Internet, the computer and the laser) are not used in the way intended by those who invented them", and: "the three most significant inventions of the past 100 years (...)"

[thorwed123]

1. changed 2. read his argument again, he implies that someone from 100 years ago, would hardly find anything different

[keiferski]

While I agree with you, there was no need for the personal attack. If you disagree with someone, say it politely and directly. Don't call them stupid in a roundabout, passive aggressive way.