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by ants_a 2015 days ago
Total world economic output is ~$150M / minute, so billions every minute is off by few orders of magnitude.
3 comments

You are assuming that a minute of disruption can not cause more than a minute's loss of productivity. I don't think that assumption is justified.

Consider an exactly one minute outage that affects multiple things I use for work.

First, I may not immediately recognize that the outage is actually with some single service provider. If several things are out I'm probably going to suspect it is something on my end, or maybe with my ISP. I might spend several minutes thoroughly checking that possibility out, before noticing that whatever it was seems to have been resolved.

Second, even if I immediately recognize it for what it is and immediately notice when it ends it might take me several minutes to get back to where I was. Not everything is designed to automatically and transparently recover from disruptions, and so I might have had things in progress when the outage stuck that will need manual cleanup and restarting.

I'm also assuming most of the world doesn't grind to a halt when gmail is down. Crops keep growing and factories keep running.
Even software engineers who are in a state of flow keep working :)
That figure seems way too low, what are your sources on it?
Simple math says:

World GDP (via Google) $80,934,771,028,340

Minutes per year 365 * 24 * 60 = 525,600

Divide and you get 153,985,485

World GDP is $80 trillion per year.
World GDP was ~$90B last year (https://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP.pdf), which averages to ~$150M/minute
That's trillion not billion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billion

A billion is a number with two distinct definitions:

- 1,000,000,000, i.e. one thousand million, or 10^9, as defined on the short scale. This is now the meaning in both British and American English.

- 1,000,000,000,000, i.e. one million million, or 10^12, as defined on the long scale. This is one thousand times larger than the short scale billion, and equivalent to the short scale trillion. This is the historical meaning in English and the current use in many non-English-speaking countries where billion and trillion 10^18 maintain their long scale definitions.

Nevertheless almost everyone uses 1B = 10^9 for technical discussions

This is a financial discussion though so:

https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-by-country/

World's GDP is $80,934,771,028,340 (nominal, 2017).

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%2480%2C934%2C771%2C02...

$80.93477102834 trillion

Nobody would argue world GDP is anything billion, that's crazy.

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_des_pays_par_PIB_nominal

In France, they use milliard and billion.

Sorry, language mistake. The result is the same: GDP is ~$150M/minute
That depends where in the world you are!
Indeed. Also, Google’s revenue is about $300K per minute. The value they provide is likely higher than that, but as you said, being able to send an email an hour later than you hoped it’s fine in most cases. Also, Google Search was fine, and that’s their highest impact product.

I’d guess actual losses to the world economy were more on the order of about $100K per minute, or about 1/3 of Google’s revenue. MAYBE a few hundred thousand per minute, though that seems unlikely with Search being unaffected, and everything else coming back. Certainly a far cry from billions per minute :)