[bitsm]

The problem with the metaphor "you're dead but you don't know it" is that at the end of the movie, Willis' character accepts his situation -- pretty easily, in fact. The startup founder is unlikely to see the light so quickly.

How to break free of the delusion? Maybe by pondering the opportunity costs of not pursuing a new startup worth at least 2x (pick a reasonable concrete number) of your current one? Using real, achievable numbers might make it easier to take that leap of faith.

I think most dead startups suffer from "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" syndrome (sorry, had to toss in a metaphor of my own) -- knowing how difficult it was to get the "dead" startup off the ground, it's difficult to face starting over.

I was a cofounder of what I used to call "the most successful startup that could never make any money". We got press consistently, did some cool partnerships with big companies (always free), and were driving steadily away from any kind of a revenue model. My partner got stubborn and, frankly, arrogant about the business, despite its professional amateur status, and I had to finally leave. He could not be made to see the light, no matter what I or anyone else said. Now he runs it as a calling card to get himself speaking gigs at conferences.

After writing this down, I'm not sure there was anything I could have said to convince him to spend his time any other way. He's not a math person, so opportunity costs are lost on him. There was nothing I could do but let him man the boat alone and drift off into the night.