[taphangum]

While I agree that making games in general is a bit of crapshoot, I think that there is a way that you can increase your chance of success. Based on what I understand from creating businesses in general.

If you target a specific group people initially, and make something 'for them'. As one of them. You place yourself in a much greater position to succeed than if you had simply made a game in the abstract in the terms of who it is for.

A great example of this is the FIFA franchise. And most of the football related franchises for that matter. It seems like if you meet the criteria of making a great game, as the OP has stated, failing within these categories is in some ways, harder than succeeding.