The race for gov contracts is definitely on. We’re on the cusp of seeing these companies fight it out over who can start exploiting space first. Sure might be years out still.
It seems people are giving way too much credit to Blue Origin; they haven't even sent hardware to orbit yet. They have a bunch of cool paper rockets, but they haven't achieved much beyond New Shepard (and that rocket has only done test flights). They are not even in the same league.
ULA on the other hand is much more accomplished. Tory Bruno seems like a cool dude (he even comments on /r/SpaceXMasterRace!), and his factory tour with SmarterEveryDay (on YouTube) was very instructive. However, they seem to have absolutely no regard for costs. You can see it in the factory tour; they machine huge aluminium blocks down into panels for the rocket sides, removing ~90% of the material in the process. How is that cost-effective in terms of time or materials? They send back the chips for recycling, but still. And that's not even starting on the reusability angle; SpaceX is currently working on a fully-reusable rocket (and has flown hardware!) when ULA only has vague plans to save the engines at some point on their next rocket.
I think the only launch company that could credibly compete on innovation would be Rocket Labs, but I fear they're too small and too late to compete commercially; they'll probably end up in the "very small sats in weird orbits" niche, as ridesharing on Starship will eat the rest of the small-sat market.
ULA on the other hand is much more accomplished. Tory Bruno seems like a cool dude (he even comments on /r/SpaceXMasterRace!), and his factory tour with SmarterEveryDay (on YouTube) was very instructive. However, they seem to have absolutely no regard for costs. You can see it in the factory tour; they machine huge aluminium blocks down into panels for the rocket sides, removing ~90% of the material in the process. How is that cost-effective in terms of time or materials? They send back the chips for recycling, but still. And that's not even starting on the reusability angle; SpaceX is currently working on a fully-reusable rocket (and has flown hardware!) when ULA only has vague plans to save the engines at some point on their next rocket.
I think the only launch company that could credibly compete on innovation would be Rocket Labs, but I fear they're too small and too late to compete commercially; they'll probably end up in the "very small sats in weird orbits" niche, as ridesharing on Starship will eat the rest of the small-sat market.