[CobrastanJorji]

I've been giving the wrong answer to "Should I buy Bitcoin" since 2011 or so. I was bearish on Amazon when its stock was at 60 because its P/E ratio was ridiculous. I've learned to just be comfortable with the fact that I'm wrong a lot.

[TylerE]

You're not necessarily wrong. It's a long held truism that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

[dllthomas]

If you're right about what the market should, rationally do, and it does something else, you were still wrong.

[dllthomas]

I think I successfully communicated, and I'm getting upvoted, but my wording was imprecise. Would that I could edit to add: "[...] if you thought that is what it would do."

[chillacy]

Either one is right or the market is irrational? Seems like by that logic one can never really be proven wrong.

[TylerE]

You can be right, the market can be wrong, and then the market can crash before you can exit the position.

Imagine, for instance, trying to get actual USD (NOT USDT!) for BTC when that fever dream ends.

[ric2b]

You can get USD for BTC right now, you've been able to get if for nearly a decade and there have never been as many reputable exchanges as there are now.

[TylerE]

The exchanges tend to "go down for maintenance" on any big price swing.

[mthoms]

Evidence? I've been in crypto a long time and have never experienced this.

I'm not saying it's never happened, but implying it's some sort of repeating pattern is simply false.

[zelly]

there is no end. crypto will continue to swallow up all the world's capital and you'll be furious at how many leading zeros there are in your BTC-priced paycheck.

[zelly]

that's just delusion and cope. if the price keeps going up for years, then no matter what you think you're wrong. the market isn't being irrational, you are.

[hawk_]

If you're consistently wrong there's alpha even in that, just doing the opposite would work wonders.

[Calamity]

hahaha, don't sweat it mate. I'm right along there with you. I was surrounded by people dropping buckets of cash for GPUs back at the dawn of deep learning and was therefore naturally tempted to buy Nvidia's stock price (30$ at the time). In the end, I shied away due to the high PE too.

I take solace in the fact that some of biggest regrets or mistakes that Warren Buffet & Charlie Munger say they have made are those that you don't see - the deals they could have done but didn't and, in retrospect, should have.