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by tunesmith
2023 days ago
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I think the argument he's knocking down is more flawed than he's letting on - specifically, just because the extra cash makes it easier to make bad decisions doesn't mean that those bad decisions will be made. The argument treats those as inexorable. If the argument had been passed through a truth checker and given a few more eyeballs, that flaw would have been obvious. That particular inner syllogism just doesn't inexorably flow from the truth of its lemmas. More generally, the "flaw with first-principles analysis" is generally as you'd expect. Your premises might appear true when they're not, or your inner reasoning structure might appear valid (logical definition) when it's not, or you might be making assumptions (in the omission of other premises) that are false. It's just really hard. So that's where a slow painstaking process of repeated review will help you. And it's also not a panacea - first-principles analysis does not guarantee your solution, it's more a process that helps you surface your assumptions and learn your argument. |
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