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by tunesmith 2023 days ago
I think the argument he's knocking down is more flawed than he's letting on - specifically, just because the extra cash makes it easier to make bad decisions doesn't mean that those bad decisions will be made. The argument treats those as inexorable. If the argument had been passed through a truth checker and given a few more eyeballs, that flaw would have been obvious. That particular inner syllogism just doesn't inexorably flow from the truth of its lemmas.

More generally, the "flaw with first-principles analysis" is generally as you'd expect. Your premises might appear true when they're not, or your inner reasoning structure might appear valid (logical definition) when it's not, or you might be making assumptions (in the omission of other premises) that are false. It's just really hard. So that's where a slow painstaking process of repeated review will help you. And it's also not a panacea - first-principles analysis does not guarantee your solution, it's more a process that helps you surface your assumptions and learn your argument.

3 comments

Agree - and a related is that because you don’t have 100% ownership, you have less skin in the game. The reason to tkae money is that you believe that the 80% of the company you still own will be worth more than 100% of the company without funding. So you end up with more value at stake, not less. And more incentive not to make bad decisions (and of course more people around the table with skin in the game that are motivated to help you avoid bad decisions).
IDK... In theory, choices are good and you can just choose the better one. In practice, the financial dynamics of a business tend to create head or tail wind forces that become a part of the company's character.

All else equal (including the decision maker), a positive float business will tend to be more growth oriented than a negative float business. In theory, not so much. Float is just a type of capital (working capital). In practice, it's different.

Other people's money businesses will tend to take more risk. Publicly listed companies tend to be risk averse and quarterly report focused. These aren't carved in stone. Some publicly listed companies (eg amazon, tesla) have sailed against this wind. But, the wind is still there.

For a personal example, take the difference between having a trainer vs exercising yourself. It's theoretically possible to do the same training and have the same results, or do better. The tendency though, is meaningful, and when you pay a trainer there's a tendency to be disciplined.

Returning to the "friend's argument," it is observably true that structural constraints affect business owners.

That is all true, but you wouldn't use those "probability" statements to support a boolean outcome. For instance, a trainer might be better, but you wouldn't use that to conclude that someone shouldn't exercise without a trainer.
Yes, I found a flaw right away.

Not all problems that startups are solving are equal. If you want to build a Tesla competitor you're not going to be able to do that without raising money (unless you happen to already be a billionaire).

If you are building an app, yes the author may be right sometimes, where you can often find product market fit without the need of a large influx of cash.