[mlyle]

> Like is missing a year of 4th grade going to be a problem for anyone?

Yah. There's a whole big subset of the population that barely manages to stick with school at baseline. Educational interruption in other circumstances has been shown to have bad outcomes. We're trying to do better this time, but the school system as a whole is overtaxed.

I'm a middle school teacher. Even with best practices for remote education, I've seen all kinds of negative impacts. It's going to take a whole lot of support to get these kids to anywhere near a normal curriculum.

[remote_phone]

Of course you will see negative impacts this year. Online education sucks. But assuming kids are back in school September 2022, will there be lasting effects? No. If there are gaps, they will be addressed because all kids will have suffered the same thing, it’s not like the one kid who got mono and missed 3 months of school by herself.

[JumpCrisscross]

> assuming kids are back in school September 2022, will there be lasting effects? No.

I’ve only looked at the data for literacy and its impacts on life outcomes. (I do charity in that space.) Something like being 6 months behind in third grade can materially predict high school graduation rates, SAT scores and incomes. Even if one controls for gender, race and income.

[remote_phone]

That’s if no one else is behind. This is different. Everyone is behind. This is more akin to being in school during a war. Some countries missed entire years of school and we’re fine.

[babesh]

This is bad reasoning. If everyone produces less by the same amount, then even if you produce no less than the next person, the overall production has gone down.

[edmundsauto]

This assumes public schools are so efficient that losing be 8% will be impactful? I just don’t see it.

[babesh]

I am worried about socialization besides schooling.

[mlyle]

Yes-- both general socialization with peers and social adaptation to the classroom.

Even the 12 year olds I work with who had many years of schooling have had to readapt to meet (greatly relaxed) expectations for in person instruction with several missed months. A whole bunch of 2nd graders with a wasted end of Kinder and 1st grade year is going to be chaotic.

Depression is on a big swing upwards. And there's kids in difficult situations who are not receiving help from caring teachers and social workers. There is going to be impact that lasts for a long, long time.