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by btilly
5518 days ago
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I don't think the Doomsday Argument is that interesting. It may be trivially true, but it doesn't tell us anything interesting or predictive. If it is true, it can let us put probabilistic upper bounds on the future of the human race. For instance with 99.99999% likelihood I can tell you that the human race will fail to succeed in expanding colonization of other stars. As much as we may dream of the stars, we will never reach them. Similarly the odds of our maintaining our current population levels for the next thousand years is something like 40%. That is both interesting and predictive. Its meaning, however, is highly debatable. |
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