Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by misnamed 2029 days ago
If you want to hedge against inflation, I suggest TIPS and maybe a bit of gold.

I would also point out that the market expectation clearly isn't aligned with currencies being 'in trouble' - very low inflation in general right now.
2 comments
pashamur 2029 days ago
Generally, the only way to make outsized returns in the market is to go against market expectations, otherwise you would just make market returns.

So yes, a bet on crypto is a bet against the market consensus, sort of by definition :)

link
misnamed 2029 days ago
A good way to get high returns is to simply use a low-cost, tax-efficient combination of stock and bond index funds. After taxes and fees, the results compound in your favor. I have no interest in gambling on even higher returns - those are plenty for me. If you want to maximize your chances of getting rich as well as getting poor, yes, you can put it all on Bitcoin, or Tesla, or 32 at the roulette wheel, but I'm more interested in growing a nest egg than taking those risks.
link
wsc981 2029 days ago
> If you want to hedge against inflation, I suggest TIPS and maybe a bit of gold.

I need to read up on TIPS, haven't heard about that before. Yes, gold is a decent option as well. However I view Bitcoin as digital gold and it has a few nice properties that gold doesn't have (of course gold has some good properties that Bitcoin doesn't have). One of the aspects of Bitcoin that I appreciate the most, is that it's very easy to carry around with me, for example when travelling on an airplane to another country. The same is not true for gold.

> I would also point out that the market expectation clearly isn't aligned with currencies being 'in trouble' - very low inflation in general right now.

Inflation is actually really high, but its mostly hidden in rising prices for stocks and real estate.

link
pashamur 2029 days ago
> Inflation is actually really high, but its mostly hidden in rising prices for stocks and real estate.

Sort of. There's inflationary forces (fiscal / stimulatory policy) battling deflationary forces (mainly technological innovation), mainly netting out to a low inflation rate at the moment, as defined by the CPI.

Assets that are not affected by the deflationary forces (such as land, and some types of housing), do tend to increase in value, though some of that is increase is just due to interest rates being so low (since for most consumers the house payment is more important than the absolute price; when interest goes down, prices normally go up).

It would be interesting to do a graph of interest-normalized house/asset prices over time.

link
misnamed 2029 days ago
I won't get into the 'is the CPI accurate?' debate, but will just say I haven't seen a better metric. So I'll stick with: inflation is low.

As for the portability of Bitcoin ... OK, but then Bitcoin > Bitcoin ETF, if your goal is to transport and spend it outside of online brokerages.

link