[Kiro]

The numbers in Japan are most likely severely underreported. It's extremely hard to get tested. You pretty much need to have been in contact with someone confirmed infected or hospitalized to get a test. It's a catch-22.

But even with the confirmed cases the trend in Japan is worrying, especially compared to other countries in Asia. They're setting new records every day: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20201201_36/

With that said, I absolutely think the mask culture in Japan has dampened the surge a lot. In countries without this people just do the bare minimum to be compliant, so we have all these chin-wearers and nose-flashers. We're simply hopeless at wearing masks even with the strictest of mask mandates. So even if masks could reduce the spread significantly we're not likely to see the effect of that here.