[gerbal]

It really depends on vaccination rates and the transmission rates of vaccinated people. Vaccines aren't going to reach mass distribution until February or March at the earliest. It's an open question just how much vaccination reduces low-level infection and retransmission. The published vaccine trials have been focused on incidence of symptoms and reduction in mortality in the vaccinated group.

It remains possible that the death rate may climb among the unvaccinated if others' vaccinations is used as an excuse for risky behavior.

[0xffff2]

>Also vaccinated people can still catch and transmit covid, though they are not going to experience severe symptoms.

This is stated with far too much confidence. It may be true that vaccinated individuals can still transmit COVID. It may also be true that they can't. We don't know yet.

[MaxDPS]

Isn’t this a fact though (just not in the way OP meant)? The current vaccines have a ~90% success rate. That means that 1/10 people might still get COVID-19 and possibly transmit it.

[ghaff]

The vaccine trials did not test whether people who did not get COVID-19 might nonetheless have been infectious. The assumption is that it reduces or even eliminates infectiousness but that hasn't actually been tested for AFAIK.

[0xffff2]

The statement as originally written implies that all people who are vaccinated can still transmit the disease. That may be true, but it's unlikely and we don't have enough data to say one way or the other yet.

[gerbal]

You are correct, I've edited my comment to be appropriately hedged