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by samatman 2023 days ago
Thought experiment: you're presented a jar, and offered the chance to bet ten bucks on drawing a white ball. You know nothing about the content of the jar. What odds would you take?

Now, you see ten white balls get added, then are blinded while other balls are added (maybe). You estimate the jar can't hold more than about a hundred balls. What odds would you take?

Now, you see ten white and ten black get put in, and saw it was empty before. What odds?

Now, you see ten white and fifty black, but the whites are larger, and you get to draw a ball. What odds?

The difference between the second-to-last and the last is the missing information we usually think of when we talk about randomness being missing information.

And you'll see that the previous scenarios don't change anything about that.