[Raidion]

Economics as a concept is a bad example for a black box because what would you say the input and output would be?

Isn't economics the study of all the different black boxes and how they interact in general? Like if you took the honey market, someone out there understands the honey market, who is buying, who is selling, and why the prices are where they are. You repeat this for all markets (or parts of markets) and someone understands either the black box, or the way black boxes usually work together. When you have a large number of black boxes, the system can behave in weird ways because the behavior of the system is defined by each of the sub-systems behaving in a certain range. When that range changes wildly, the system can behave in unpredictable ways.

Economics simply defines general rules for these complicated systems and so are heavily dependent on all the sub systems to function in a prescribed range. I don't feel like you can call economics a black box, but you could say that no one understands those particular problems you put forth because we don't have enough data (and enough correlation) to really determine what that change to a bunch of subsystems has on the system, especially when other factors (bull/bear market, global uncertainty, etc) will probably have a biasing effect.