[opportune]

I'm not sure, just because I think something is intrinsically worthless doesn't mean there won't be other people who still think the stock has value in 2 years.

I think it's a malinvestment unless you are reasonably certain there will be a drop soonish but want to hedge that bet with something long-dated.

Anyway, I was simply responding to your statement that you could make bank on it, which I highly disagree with. So much uncertainty is already priced in that the max upside is only 3x even if the company becomes completely worthless in the next 2 years.

[renewiltord]

Right, but that's where it comes in that you have better knowledge than the aggregate of the market. Whether or not it's bank is how much the gain is. Whether or not it's worth the risk is separate.

A quick test for the certainty a lot of people are expressing here on the company's worthlessness is how much they're willing to bet on making that real.

And I agree with you, I wouldn't make the trade. But that's all because I can't predict it.