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by raverbashing 2031 days ago
I really find it surprising how people will torture data until it shows them the BS they want to believe

You can't assert you passed the peak until a long time after you pass it. Given the primary source, the UK peak was around 2 Nov/3 Nov https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time Yes, the previous measures might be sufficient and more important than a lockdown

> (2) Infections in most of Western Europe are decreasing at the same time regardless of measures taken or when they were taken.

Except for Sweden, where it kept climbing and climbing, funny.

> we will understand that the virus will follow its own curve regardless of what we try to do

Physical isolation of infected people has been proven to work since the middle ages and the black plague but it seems that the new fashion is to invent some idiotic BS and repeat it as truth such as "the Earth is flat" or "people can be contaminated through closed walls". But if you think it doesn't matter might I suggest you go volunteer in a COVID ward. No masks needed.

> Six of 12 men wintering at an isolated Antarctic base sequentially developed symptoms and signs of a common cold after 17 weeks of complete isolation

If each person is infectious for 5 days, and it takes between 2 to 14 days for incubation, it is not hard to imagine how it goes on for 17 weeks. It might not even have been Covid (or a virus)

2 comments

Also getting your hand at good data isn't so easy nowadays. E.g. reporting date can be very different from actual date of death. My area once lagged 3 months.

Interesting to read about a peak at the start of November. Some regions of Germany where data for "date of death" is available also show a peak slightly before 1.Nov.

Some regions seem to have a constant lag for reporting. For others the curves using "reporting date" seem to be completely detached from the "date of death" data.

> Except for Sweden, where it kept climbing and climbing, funny.

Sweden’s cases started rising in early November, peaked in mid-November, and are now in clear decline:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

You don't know you passed the peak until you clearly passed the peak. This is not the case so far. (Just take the same graph and ignore the data after a certain date. If you go back to Nov 1, you would have thought you'd be over the peak already, but you arent)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-22/swedish-p...

There's a Swedish caveat in death data as well https://ourworldindata.org/covid-sweden-death-reporting

> You don’t know you passed the peak until you clearly passed the peak.

What manner of logic is this? Look at the plot: the daily case numbers are in decline. I don’t know what will happen three weeks from now, but I know that it’s factually incorrect to claim that cases are still increasing.

By the same logic you’re using, the very article this is attached to is nonsense: you don’t know if cases in the UK will go up again tomorrow.