[Sharlin]

This is basically the Bayesian interpretation of probability.

[lottin]

Saying that "the probability of a coin toss of 50% talks about you" is not an interpretation of probability. Saying that we are "50% sure" is also not an interpretation of probability. It's a nonsensical statement. It's like saying we are "50% angry". It doesn't really mean anything.

[alisonkisk]

I don't understand your claims that these statements are are meaningless. They are commonly uttered and understood.

[lottin]

I can understand expressions such as "pretty sure" or "completely sure". I do not understand the expression "to be X% sure". If someone says they're "37% sure" tomorrow will rain, what does that mean exactly?

[kgwgk]

Can you understand expressions like "more sure of A than B" or "as sure of A as of B"? Then, they are as sure that tomorrow will rain as they are sure that throwing three dice the sum will be 9 or less (37.5%).

[lottin]

It's clear that 37.5% sure is 0.5% more sure than 37% sure. The problem remains how to interpret these numbers.

[kgwgk]

You're asking about the interpretation of a statement such as "I assign the same probability to events A and B"?

That would mean that both are equally likely as far as that person knows.

[dinosaurdynasty]

37% of the time that someone says they are 37% sure of a statement X the statement X is true (assuming they're calibrated correctly/etc).

[enriquto]

Of course. But if you pronounce a fancy word like "bayesian" there's a large amount of minds that shut irremediably.

[v64]

That's also why we call it QBism [1] instead of quantum bayesianism

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_Bayesianism