| Thank you for your thoughtful answer. I pointed the lack of error bars myself, as well as mentioned that I don’t know what other number to divide by, as you noted. I am not trying to be intellectually dishonest. And I may agree with your analysis - on phone now, can’t really do the reading. However, we have two sources you claim are only for the cutter incident, whee one quotes 200,000 doses and another 120,000; as you note, the 1/1000 might well be 0.8 or 1.3 in 1000; it may be false but it is definitely bot “patently false”. On the same note, it’s the internet, and for all you know I am a dog, but I have saved a family members from years of
agony and wrong treatments due to wrong diagnosis after being told “it is patently obvious” that my analysis was wrong. And I have apology letters from department heads at two of the world’s highest ranked hospitals after it turned out I was right and they were wrong. And you know what? I’m quite sure I probably had a few mathematical errors along the way back then as well. But what they thought was two orders of magnitude more probable evidence towards one direction, turned out to be higher probability in the other (by less than an order of magnitude) and turned out to be what the thought was improbable beyond consideration. (And, I found a few mathematical errors in a three peer reviewed papers they were relying on) I take issue with people who claim “patently obvious” about things which have about factor of 2 or so (if I take your numbers) without error bars (120000-200000 is a large difference) and without supplying sources, which you didn’t bother until I did. (And I may not have time to delve into this further - this is merely of historical interest to me, not life and death like that other event). Also, you may notice this sub thread is basically the only one that actually discusses numbers, others use arbitrary determinations like “most people’s living memory” to discard concerns. Despite advocating vaccines myself, I have a problem with religious zealotry around vaccines, which is what most pro-vaccine people practice - I have a child who could not get vaccines for medical reasons for many years, and I have to explain that, no, vaccines are not perfectly safe on an individual basis, and have not historically been perfectly safe on a population basis (Swedish Pandemrix), even though on a net population basis they are a net positive. I thank you again for your thoughtful discussion. |