[liminalsunset]

When it comes to progress bars that lie, I think of two major examples:

1) Apple software updates or OS installs usually never have the bar progress past 30% or so. I don't think they lie, so much as 100% is actually at 40%.

2) Windows installation. Copying Windows files jumps straight to 100%, Expanding Windows files is the only one that provides meaningful indication, installing features and installing updates happen instantly.

Then, it goes into a period of indeterminate loading spinner after a reboot.

These days, where possible (i.e. on VM, or if I'm in the OS already) I just use iStat menus or other monitoring software to check if things are using the processor by checking the CPU usage, CPU power consumption, disk read/write, and network activity. If something's happening, I let it sit. If not, the process needs to be restarted.