[542354234235]

> Pandemrix, a flu vaccine, caused a notable uptick in narcolepsy in Sweden, Finland and likely the UK.

"The increased risk of narcolepsy due to vaccination was 1 in 18400 or 0.005%."[1] Considering the fatality and long term disability rate of Covid, and the way testing and safety protocols are done for vaccines, I don't really see how there could be an unknown and unseen risk that would outweigh the risk of contracting Covid.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemrix#Side_effects

[beagle3]

The risk of death in kids without underlying diseases is is approximately 0. It is not clear that giving (e.g. in the US) 30,000 of these kids narcolepsy is reasonable.

It might be, but it’s not open and shut.

[Exmoor]

As far as I know, none of the COVID19 vaccines have been tested on children under 12 or are currently planned on being given to children.

Additionally, it's not as if the average vaccine has a 0.005% chance of giving you narcolepsy. That figure was for the one vaccine in one country which appears to be the only example in most people's living memory of a vaccine possibly causing long-term side effects (it's not even proven the vaccine was the cause). There have been tens of billions of vaccines given during this time period and this is the only example where there may have been long term side effects.

[beagle3]

I've also mentioned the cutter polio vaccine and the 1976 swine flu vaccine which seems to have caused an uptick of GBS.

> There have been tens of billions of vaccines given during this time period and this is the only example where there may have been long term side effects.

No, there are other examples, the other two I just mentioned are from memory, I suspect if I go research I will find more (I don't have the time). You know what else is common to those other two cases? They were rushed (pandemrix wasn't AFAIK).

SARS-Cov-2 vaccines were all rushed, and the safety protocols used to confidently ascertain those billions of vaccines were NOT followed - The standard is to wait 2-4 years to see that there's no ADE or other issues.

I am pro-vaccination. I don't understand why it is hard to acknowledge and discuss the risk profile of vaccines - they re not risk free. Excuse me if I don't automatically think a rushed vaccine is perfectly safe.

[Exmoor]

> I've also mentioned the cutter polio vaccine and the 1976 swine flu vaccine which seems to have caused an uptick of GBS.

That Polio vaccine wasn't a side effect of the vaccine though, it was an issue with people accidently getting injected with a live virus. Since no live virus is even remotely involved in any COVID19 vaccines it has zero relevance here. Even if they were, we have 60+ years of history with no similar incidents since then.

> I suspect if I go research I will find more

You really won't. I've been reading about this extensively during this period and those are the only examples where there may have been long term effects that anyone can point to.

I qualified my original comment with "in most people's living memory" and didn't include the '76 swine flu vaccine because, frankly, I don't think pointing to an issue that happened 44 years ago in a field that has seen pretty significant technological advancement in knowledge, methods, and manufacturing processes really makes sense.

> why it is hard to acknowledge and discuss the risk profile of vaccines

My issue is not that there's isn't some theoretical risk, it's that it just isn't put in context of how minute it is. In all likelihood your risk of facing long term effects from a car accident happening on your way to get vaccinated are higher than anything that could happen from the vaccine. And both those risks are, of course, many orders of magnitude less than your chance of suffering long-term effects from catching COVID19.

[beagle3]

> Since no live virus is even remotely involved in any COVID19 vaccines it has zero relevance here.

Your omnipotent knowledge is inspiring. We have absolutely zero years of experience with RNA based vaccines. We had incidents with vaccines, not of the same kind. Ergo, there's a non zero probability we will have incidents in the future, by any reasonable inference.

> I qualified my original comment with "in most people's living memory" and didn't include the '76 swine flu vaccine because, frankly, I don't think pointing to an issue that happened 44 years ago in a field that has seen pretty significant technological advancement in knowledge, methods, and manufacturing processes really makes sense.

That's really painting a target where your arrow landed. Most people's living memory does not include e.g. the 1918 pandemic or the bubonic plague, or atomic bombs, or thousands of other things we're proactively defending against and of which we have better understanding but are still an issue. If "living memory" is your criterion ... well, I wouldn't describe it as anything but completely arbitrary.

Within living memory you have totally understandable and preventable things like Fukushima, the nestle mother milk fiasco in Africa, and others. We had enough understanding to stop all of them, and yet they happened. Every single SARS-COV-2 vaccine manufacturer has gotten government immunity from future claims, which aligns their incentive differently compared to vaccines they have produced in the past. They have become too big/important to sue - much like e.g. the fukushima reactor operator. Given this distinctly different incentive structure, rushed schedule, novel RNA delivery system - your belief that the past is a good predictor of the future is unscientific (at the very least, unbayesian without a ton of nontrivial priors you don't bother stating).

> And both those risks are, of course, many orders of magnitude less than your chance of suffering long-term effects from catching COVID19.

Ah, about that. Do you have any actual data about that? Because the best summary of "long covid" evidence I found was written by an MD, is summarized here[0], and can further be summarized by the word "lacking". I spent a lot of time looking for actual data about long covid (not anecdotes), and this summary is better than what I was able to find myself (but I do urge you to read it - do introduce it to your "living memory").

[0] https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/11/17/what-is-long-covid...