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by rendall 2038 days ago
"It is most likely that ..."

I agree with your main point and was going to write something like this. But "most likely" is likely unjustified. It could be a 3rd factor that causes both, but its likelihood is unknown.

1 comments

https://www.gwern.net/Causality

Correlation usually does not indicate causation. I.e. more than 50% of the time, correlative relationships in studies do not indicate causal ones. Taking that as a prior, and lacking any evidence to the contrary, it is indeed correct to say "it is most likely that ...".

... fair point! I stand corrected!