[bluGill]

You need to get positives down to zero for two weeks before you declare success. Daily testing, with quarantine of any positives and then contact tracing two levels (everyone you contacted and then their contacts could get to zero quickly. But the quarantine step is required for every one to pull that off.

Of course this works out easy in a post. Good luck implementing it in real life. People violate quarantine if they can.

[xscott]

No, that's exactly my point. Even if it went according to your best possible plan, all you do is reset it back to Jan 2019.

Or did you mean we're all going to do daily testing and contact tracing forever?

[bluGill]

I mean daily testing until we have two weeks of zero cases. Worldwide (or mandatory two weeks isolated quarantine at customs). This is what new Zealand did, so it is possible, but it is logically very hard for anyone not an isolated island.

[xscott]

Worldwide with quarantines from customs is virtually impossible. Customs can't stop human or cocaine trafficking from making it into the country, much less undocumented immigration. All you need is a half dozen sick people who are trying to hide from the authorities, and you're back to square one. Most countries are not islands.

[bluGill]

Like I said, logistically impossible, but it would work.