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by KKPMW
2038 days ago
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There are a few things intermingled in this election example. 1. The outcome of the election here is not a probability. It is the population value - the ratio of people voting for candidate X on the election date. It doesn't have to be repeated in the same way measurements of height for all people in United States would not have to be repeated, if instead of vote we were measuring heights. 2. Frequentist probability doesn't require to physically repeat things. It can reason about what would happen in the repeated sampling under certain conditions, and then draw inferences about those assumed conditions. With the election example: if you get a survey of 100 people with 70% voting for candidate "A" we don't need to repeat this survey in order to know the likelihood (frequency) of this result happening if the real proportion of people voting for candidate "A" across the US is 50%. |
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