[soniman]

"Our growth has been highly capital efficient. We have been able to achieve this massive growth and scale by having net cumulative cash flow from operations of $16 million from January 1, 2017 to September 30, 2020, aided by our positive cash float, where we receive an upfront payment from a user, and remit payment to a merchant a number of weeks later. In 2019, we generated a net loss of $129 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $(127) million, compared to a net loss of $208 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $(211) million in 2018, and a net loss of $207 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $(135) million in 2017. For the nine months ended September 30, 2020, we generated a net loss of $176 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $(99) million, compared to a net loss of $5 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $(11) million for the nine months ended September 30, 2019."

[Mengkudulangsat]

So many of these new S-1s are unprofitable, where does the money all go?

I'm beginning to wonder if entire unicorn ecosystem is just a funnel to subsidize ad / infrastructure / payment rail revenues at the leading providers.

[f0ff]

There's little reason for a company owners to dilute their holdings with an S-1, if they are already profitable and don't have huge investments planned ahead.

[thehappypm]

Woah I had never considered that before. I bet there are tons of private companies out there just absolutely printing profits for a small number of internal shareholders that we just don't really know about.

[soniman]

Did you miss the part where it said that it's been net profitable? "net cumulative cash flow from operations of $16 million from January 1, 2017 to September 30, 2020"

[vetinari]

That part does not mean what you think it means. Cash flow, negative working capital and profitability are separate things. In the end, they are generating loss.

[soniman]

Assuming run rate revenues of around $2.5B, I assume this will be valued around 15x revenues, so $37.5 billion. Just a wild guess.

[adventured]

Overstock is going for ~1.4 times sales (and that's 3x inflated versus May due to OSTK recently joining the bubble party).

If by some miracle Wish gets 15x, they'll be a spectacular short opportunity.

[soniman]

Wish was valued at $11 billion in the last VC round in 2019. Since then Shopify is up 200% so if Wish is being valued off Shopify then $37.5 billion isn't far off. Shop's price to sales is 50x so 15x isn't outrageous for Wish. Shop is growing faster but Wish's economics are better.

[ganoushoreilly]

> https://www.amazon.com/Wireless-Headphones-Bluetooth-Earbuds...

But Wish is in a retailer vs Shopify as a platform. I Highly doubt wish has the same value. In fact, I don't know a single instance of someone shopping wish and being satisfied. Someone will buy it, it'll probably be way over valued, and it will eventually drop back.

[soniman]

Shopify is a service provider, it's not a platform because it doesn't control the relationship with the consumer. Wish is an aggregator on both sides and that's why it's a platform.