[pdmfz]

Agreed but what is noticeable is how much greater the losses are this year (with still three months to go).

2018: $97.2m

2019: $86.0m

2020: $203.2m

[rdlecler1]

If LTV >> CaC then spend.

[disgruntledphd2]

Assuming your LTV calculations are correct, then this will work out.

LTV models are really, really hard to get right though, and I've seen a bunch of startups go bust because of getting this wrong.

[vasco]

By now they have LTV metrics by cohort surely, no need to model things out in the dark

[disgruntledphd2]

If you're spending more than you're making, then you're almost certainly projecting LTV.

The big, falsifiable assumption here is that your acquisition sources will keep sending you users of the same quality. Because of the way that ML systems work, this tends to not be true, and if you are using long windows it will both take you a long time to realise this, and cost you a bunch of money.

This is normally how companies go bust/stop growing as a result of LTV models.

[darkwizard42]

While in a vacuum larger losses aren't painting the full picture, but then if you take their revenue growth only increasing by 70% into context it looks even worse!