[samatman]

The interesting question, to me, is whether we will see a visible spike in all-cause mortality for, let's say, 2020-2025.

COVID-19 is particularly hard on the elderly, which is by no means an inevitable fact about epidemics. Every person who dies of this disease would have lived longer, which makes their death a tragedy: but how much longer?

Cards on the table: my suspicion is that we won't. I could be wrong, particularly if recovering from the disease shortens lifespans for an appreciable number of patients. We'll know when we know.

[x87678r]

Add to that the health complications of missed cancer scans, "quarantine 15" weight gain, economic turmoil, lost education, drug addiction and mental health. I'm guessing middle aged people's death rates will be increasing the next few years with cancer, heart disease and suicides all increasing.

[thebruce87m]

If you look at data for my country (Scotland) it the 45 - 64 age group have occupied the most hospital beds during the pandemic.

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker...

Scroll to “Hospital Admissions by Age Group”

So while some scans etc will have been missed for this age group during lockdown, they would also have suffered losses as a result of an overwhelmed health system.

[intotheabyss]

The way I look at covid for older demographics is that they now have an additional top killer in addition to cancer and cardiovascular disease. So effectively, people are about 2x more likely to die this year* than they would have otherwise. So if their odds of surviving one year from 60 to 61 was 5% last year, then they're odds of dying are 10% this year* . The same can sort of be applied for under 40s. If they had a 0.01% chance of dying in the next year, then they now have a 0.02% chance this year*

*given that they contract covid

[mcguire]

February through July, an average of 9.3 years of life lost.

https://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/advance-article/doi/10.1...

"Deaths among adults 65 and older accounted for 80% of excess YLL in April but only 36% of excess YLL in June. Since April, working age adults 20-64 have accounted for 47% of excess YLL, and males 20 to 64 have contributed 34%."

https://healthcostinstitute.org/hcci-research/the-impact-of-...

[beagle3]

I suspect we might even see a reduction in all cause mortality: Those who were going to die in 2020-2025 without the virus for health reason, were more likely to die this year because of covid.