[nextparadigms]

I think this will mostly help increase the life expectancy of the Moore's Law by another 10 years or so. When we'll get to 11nm or whatever is the limit, we'll just start stacking layers of transistors on each other. That will only work until the chips become too thick, though.

[SlipperySlope]

Intel is projecting to be at 10nm in 2015, way ahead of the industry lithography roadmaps published five or ten years ago.

Below 10nm, Intel and other fabricators will start looking beyond CMOS, perhaps to carbon based structures.

[nextparadigms]

I wouldn't say way ahead. They are about a generation ahead.

When Intel was at 45, the ARM makers were 65. Intel at 32, ARM makers at 40/45.

When Intel will be at 22. ARM makers will be at 28/32. When they'll be at 10nm, ARM will be at 14nm using IBM's foundry.

[SlipperySlope]

I agree with what you said, but I'm sorry you misunderstood my point. The ITRS lithography roadmaps for years have assumed that lithography would advance at the rate of 36 months between nodes, e.g. between 45nm and 32nm. But in response to AMD competition in the previous decade, Intel introduced their "tick-tock" cycle in which Intel advances the lithography node every 24 months. Other CPU fabricators have been forced to keep up with Intel's pace, and as you point out they have been a process generation behind.

As a result, 10nm will be released in 2015, rather than 2020 as ITRS predicted in much earlier roadmaps.

What gets real interesting in just a few years is how Intel and others will get below 10nm. Could be a shift to carbon based structures will be necessary.

[Klinky]

Well Intel was hoping to hit 10Ghz with the Pentium 4 & we know how that worked out. Perhaps they'll hit 10nm in 2015, but a "small delay" in new process technology usually seems to be "12+ months".