Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by function_seven 2045 days ago
> It certainly is harder to rationalise caring very much about PredictIt when you notice that "Trump NO" (Donald Trump is not elected to be the next President of the United States of America) costs about 85¢ right now, even though he's lost and the resolution will pay $1 for that 85¢ "gamble".

I just tried to buy a bunch of these. When I clicked [Submit Offer], I got this message:

    We have reached the maximum number
    of traders on this contract.
All proxy markets are giving me the same message. (Will VP be a woman, EC vote margin in 60-99 bucket, etc.)

> But again, liquidity. That market is not very liquid, so you likely shouldn't think too much of it.

Exactly. So this "86¢" appears to be totally meaningless now. If I can't buy at that price, then anyone holding it can't sell. There's no action here.