[nl]

> The point is it's dumb to pretend that the CFR is going to be uniform, and that just because it's 2.2% in the US at the moment, it can be linearly scaled up to the entire population

This argument makes a lot more sense than your previous one.

> nobody is even trying to find out as far as I can tell.

As someone who has friends who have been working on this for months, I can assure you this is absolutely not true. There must be tens of thousands working on it, since the people I know are members of a group approaching 100.

Two of the big problems I hear about are:

Different interventions make modelling the effective reproduction number difficult, since this gets altered so much by the interventions

Different tests have different false positive (and false negative) rates and it is really hard to find out what test is used in which jurisdiction (and even harder to find that out historically).

It's not some big conspiracy. It's more that everyone Excel files are in different formats... sigh.