[nl]

As someone in Australia, where our biggest trading partner is China and our primary security alliance and our 3rd biggest trading partner is the US I hope this is the case, but it is turning out to be pretty difficult.

We are in the middle of the worst trade sanctions ever from China after one of our wonderful ministers went to the US and proposed to Mr Trump an international commission to investigate the origins of COVID-19 in China.

Those from Australia will recognize "a commission" as a way to bury a problem without getting anyone offside, but apparently no one told the Chinese this.

So now we have this stupid pointless commission we can't back down from, China stopped buying our exports, and no one in the US even aware that it was supposed to be a way to help the US out.

[FooBarWidget]

I have a Chinese background, and was in China in January 2020. I witnessed the reporting from both sides and saw things progress on the ground. I have quite a different view.

I don't believe the Australian call for an investigation was genuine/scientific/objective at all. The call was meant as a political attack. There is no way Australia or the US would accept any investigation result that doesn't put the full blame on China. It's a case of 'guilty until proven innocent, and we won't accept evidence of innocence'.

This is shown by the fact that Australia and the US are not interested in investigating whether other countries (including their own) could be related to the origin, nor whether the response outside China has been adequate. Come on, if you're already set on a result, then why begin the investigation in the first place? And why divert resources to such an investigation, when there are much more urgent issues, such as fighting the virus? Such an 'investigation' only serves to legitimize prejudice and political agendas.

It does not surprise me in the least that China sees through these disingenuous intentions.

Earlier this year, China already pledged in front of the UN that they will allow an truly independent, scientific investigation, after the pandemic was over.

Furthermore, China's response to Australia isn't just the result of Australia's call to investigate China. China has been taking punches from Australia for years. Australia went full in on Trump's rhetoric about China being a bully/threat, and has been blasting China in its media for years now. Things inside Australia have escalated so much, that anybody with a Chinese origin is viewed with suspicion for being a potential CCP agent, even if no evidence exists, and even if said person was Australia-born. The COVID-19 investigation call is just the last drop.

Is China sometimes overly sensitive? Yes. Is China always in the right? No. But when you keep insulting a big customer, is it any surprise they chose not to buy from you anymore? The media seems to want to exlusively portrait Australia as a wholly-innocent victim, meaning that that they think it's okay to keep attacking China while being entitled to benefiting from China. In my opinion, Australia needs a dose of self-reflection too, and admit that they too played a part in deteriorating relations.

I hope you guys can continue sort things out at the negotiation table, and mend this broken relationship, rather than continuing to deny own responsibility and to deny this reality where China no longer be walked all over.

[nl]

I agree that the Chinese/Australian relationship hasn't been great for a while.

But I think you are radically underestimating the amount of support China has (or had) in Australia. China has made a lot of people rich (to make it clear: not from corruption, but from trade) and there is/was a lot of admiration for how far China has progressed in such a short period of time.

> I don't believe the Australian call for an investigation was genuine/scientific/objective at all. The call was meant as a political attack. There is no way Australia or the US would accept any investigation result that doesn't put the full blame on China.

The Australian Minister who made the call (Peter Dutton) did it just as he returned from a trip to the US. He's something of a mini-Trump (with a worse TV manner) and clearly made the call to get support from the US. It wasn't something that anyone else in government seems to have known about, and support for it has been lukewarm.

In an alternate world, China could have welcomed the call with the proviso that it included the response to the pandemic. The Australian public would have supported that (there is great contempt here for how badly the US handled it), and China could have weakened the Australia/US alliance from that.

> It's a case of 'guilty until proven innocent, and we won't accept evidence of innocence'.

I don't agree with that at all. I think in Australia most people think the Chinese response was good. I think there were initial errors by the regional government (which the Chinese government has already made clear by getting rid of those people) and the inquiry should have found that.

> This is shown by the fact that Australia and the US are not interested in investigating whether other countries (including their own) could be related to the origin

Well there's no real compelling evidence, but I'm sure that could have been included in the inquiry if China had gone to work influencing the terms of reference.

> Australia went full in on Trump's rhetoric about China being a bully/threat, and has been blasting China in its media for years now

This isn't true. Australia signed a free trade agreement the year before Trump came to power and was generally seen as a great trading partner.

Australia had been opposed to Chinese policy in the South China Sea, in Hong Kong and in Tibet, but didn't do anything to help Trump in his stupid trade war.

> Things inside Australia have escalated so much, that anybody with a Chinese origin is viewed with suspicion for being a potential CCP agent, even if no evidence exists, and even if said person was Australia-born.

I can't emphasise enough how strange it is to hear someone claim that. Over 1/3 the population of Australia was born outside Australia, and China is the second most common place of birth of those. I worked in the university sector and we funded almost as many PhD students from China as were born in Australia.

It's true there have been some recent spy cases uncovered. But these have included people with no family relationship to China as well as some born there.

> In my opinion, Australia needs a dose of self-reflection too, and admit that they too played a part in deteriorating relations.

Well I think this incident was entirely Australia's fault, and I think most people realise that and the media has acknowledged it.

But there is no face saving way for Australia to back down, and there is no political appetite in any Australian political party for being seen as bowing to Chinese pressure and suggesting the call would be withdrawn.

My point is that if China had been smarter about this they could have come out ahead in Australia while making the US look bad. Instead they play the "oh we are offended" card and have lost a lot of the support they enjoyed in Australia over it.

[FooBarWidget]

Thanks for providing your perspective. I'd like to comment on a few things and I hope to hear your thoughts on them.

> The Australian Minister who made the call (Peter Dutton) did it just as he returned from a trip to the US. He's something of a mini-Trump (with a worse TV manner) and clearly made the call to get support from the US. It wasn't something that anyone else in government seems to have known about, and support for it has been lukewarm.

All right. There's a disconnect between the political class and the public.

Unfortunately, this is just one of the multiple diplomatic incidents. There seems to be quite a few China hawks in your government. For example, Australia was the first country to ban Huawei. This looks especially bizarre to me because 1) nobody has ever found proof that Huawei spies, 2) multiple intelligence agencies actually said that they're not worried, and 3) it has been proven that the US spies on its allies, yet nobody's talking about banning US equipment.

You mentioned that Australia doesn't want to be seen bowing to China, yet it looks to me as if you have no problems bowing to the US. And now that you did what the US wanted, they're not even coming to save you by e.g. buying from you. Doesn't sovereignty mean that you make your own decisions?

> Australia had been opposed to Chinese policy in the South China Sea, in Hong Kong and in Tibet, but didn't do anything to help Trump in his stupid trade war.

South China Sea: okay. I also agree that this South China Sea thing needs to be resolved.

But Tibet and Hong Kong? Those are landmines. As far as China is concerned, those are sovereignty issues, and any poking by outsiders is seen as neo-imperialism. And I'm not just talking about the government: the population at large is also not pleased at how foreigners keep poking into Chinese territorial issues. It's seen ast the last remains of 19th century humiliation, where western powers could walk all over China with guns and warships and put people on drugs (literally). I think many westerners don't realize just how sensitive those topics are, in part because they have a bad understanding of China's history (or just don't care at all).

> I can't emphasise enough how strange it is to hear someone claim that. Over 1/3 the population of Australia was born outside Australia, and China is the second most common place of birth of those. I worked in the university sector and we funded almost as many PhD students from China as were born in Australia.

What do you think of these events? Demanding that Chinese-Australians (who were born in Australia) testify in front of parliament that they unconditionally condemn CCP. This looks like "guilty until proven innocent" to me?

https://archive.is/PwwXN (bypasses SCMP paywall)

https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-was-born-in-australia-why-...

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/16/eric-...

> My point is that if China had been smarter about this they could have come out ahead in Australia while making the US look bad. Instead they play the "oh we are offended" card and have lost a lot of the support they enjoyed in Australia over it.

Oh yes, I agree with that. China's public communications and attitude is terrible. They have problems dealing with things in a way that makes westerners comfortable.

Oh the other hand, the reverse is also true: many westerners lack an understanding of China's history, as well as what topics are sensitive and why. They believe western ideology is (or ought to be) universal, and dismiss alternative perspectives out of hand. That doesn't help either.

China is like that Asian kid who's had to endure racism all his life but was afraid to speak up. Now that he built muscles he overcompensates by getting angry at everything he doesn't like. Everybody gets surprised at that behavior and thinks he's just being sensitive for nothing.

I hope both sides can work towards better mutual understanding and cooperation.

[nl]

> You mentioned that Australia doesn't want to be seen bowing to China, yet it looks to me as if you have no problems bowing to the US.

It's absolutely a good point and I think under the Trump administration for the first time there was appetite to question this. In a different world China would have taken advantage of that.

Did you know the US failed to appoint an ambassador to Australia for nearly 2 years?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ambassadors_of_the_U...

Australia felt pushed aside by the US.

> What do you think of these events? Demanding that Chinese-Australians (who were born in Australia) testify in front of parliament that they unconditionally condemn CCP. This looks like "guilty until proven innocent" to me?

Yeah sorry about Eric Abetz.

He's pretty much a wack job, and lives to offend people. Do a search for his name on any news site and see what else he's said.

I can't and won't defend him. I'd note that your 3rd link was about how the other parties in parliament tried to get him to apologize and only failed along party lines.

I agree with your characterisation of Chinese/Western relations. I'd note in addition that China clearly decide a couple of years back to take advantage of the US's confused Asia policy and has been quite aggressive because they see a time window to act in.

[xster]

I think the nuance that might be worth diving into is that you're referring to Australia as a single entity

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/us-ownership-of-aus...

https://jacobinmag.com/2020/07/gough-whitlam-dismissal-lette...

[nl]

This sounds like it's trying to imply something very sinister, but pretty unclear what it is.

It's true that many Australian companies have significant US ownership, and that ownership has benefited hugely from Australia/China trade.

The Kerr dismissal has had numerous conspiracy theories surrounding it since 1975 when it happened.

If your point is "The US has a lot of influence in Australia" then I think it is better made by going to Canberra and looking straight out of Parliament House at the tallest statute in Canberra of the American Eagle staring down from the center of Australia's defence district.[1]

[1] https://placesofpride.awm.gov.au/memorials/190381

[FooBarWidget]

Since you're Australian, please explain something to me. Australia has been calling for decoupling with China for a while now. Now that China gives you what you want, why is it a problem?

[nl]

> Australia has been calling for decoupling with China for a while now.

What do you mean? trade There's always a "Oh Australia should look for more export markets rather than just China" but there has also been great and deep support for building deeper trade and investment ties with China.

As a specific example, [1] is the Wine Australia export guide for China. They provide guides like this, run trade shows in China for Australian wine producers etc etc.

[1] https://www.wineaustralia.com/selling/by-market/export-marke...

[throw2011160736]

Well, what's even worse was that the commission made it out to be pointing fingers at China, even though the origin of COVID-19 is still uncertain. Just yesterday, there's news reports that COVID may be in Italy as early as September 19 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-... along with the (not yet peer reviewed) study that COVID-19 may be in Barcelona as early as March 19 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20129627v...

What's even worse is that this sets an ugly precedence where countries first detect a new disease may not want to announce it to the world due to the stigmatisation.

I've been pointing this out for a while on this board, and every time I've done so, I've been either downvoted, flagged or both. Hence the throwaway.

[kortilla]

It doesn’t make sense that it wouldn’t be contagious in Italy for all of that time until a major outbreak in Wuhan. If it was truly in Italy in September in 4 different people, it would have exponentially exploded long before the first wuhan case.

[throw2011160736]

Look, (I am assuming here) neither you nor I know how a new strain of a flu is detected. Plenty of people get ill without ever going to the doctors and brush it off as a normal flu, and even if they did, the doctor may just brush it off as a normal flu. The term "you don't know what you don't know" really holds true here, so being the first to detect an illness or publish it does not mean that it where it was originated. I mean the 2009 H1N1 flu was first detected in the US, but originated in Mexico, the 1918 swine flu originated from a US army base, but was first published by the Spanish, hence it has been wrongly labelled as the Spanish flu.

I also have no idea why people have this notion to reject that COVID-19 may not have originated from China, especially the fact that most of the spread of COVID-19 came from Europe, so much so that Gov. Cuomo actually called it the Europe virus. https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article...

[nl]

> Look, (I am assuming here) neither you nor I know how a new strain of a flu is detected

I worked on flu surveillance and monitoring projects for 3 years, and have a forecasting paper published in PNAS (although that was for dengue) so I have some idea how it works.

Most countries have flu surveillance networks, where they sample from general practitioners swabs and look for new strains. In most cases this works reasonably well.

In Australia we have ASPREN for influenza-like diseases. There are also compulsory notification diseases, but in the pre-COVID days these were mostly useful for things like detecting outbreaks of whooping cough or measles, and weren't really used as flu tracking or detection.

> I also have no idea why people have this notion to reject that COVID-19 may not have originated from China

Because the first large scale outbreak occurred in Wuhan in December 2019. It seems pretty odd that it should have originated in Europe, somehow avoided any outbreaks, travelled to China, then come back to Europe via people who have been traced where it suddenly caused a huge outbreak.

> especially the fact that most of the spread of COVID-19 came from Europe, so much so that Gov. Cuomo actually called it the Europe virus

I presume you and everyone knows why this was - that China locked down quickly and Europe didn't.

Look - I guess the European origin is possible. But it's a pretty out-there theory and it needs some pretty extraordinary evidence (and antibody studies aren't convincing on their own) as well as explanations for the problems outlined above. And there's huge evidence pointing to the China origin theory to overcome too.

Take the genomics - there's a single original strain, which was detected in China, and the mutations clearly come off that. Again -it could be possible that strain was transported there but no where else or something, but it is lots of coincidences here, whereas the China origin story fits everything about how every coronavirus we've ever studied before behaves.

[throw2011160736]

> Most countries have flu surveillance networks, where they sample from general practitioners swabs and look for new strains. In most cases this works reasonably well.

Yes, I've read about the flu surveillance networks as well. However, these work well in theory, but not always in practice right? The past few years where I've seen the doctor in the UK, they've mostly dismissed anything wrong with me by just giving me some minor medication (this is probably in accordance to meet the waiting target), so things can always be missed out. I mean, there were reports that says the UK and US are best equipped to handle a pandemic, but in reality, we are seeing otherwise.

> Because the first large scale outbreak occurred in Wuhan in December 2019

I would personally say that the outbreak in Wuhan is not really that large scale when you compare it to what's been happening to the rest of the world. The largest scale of it is the media coverage of it since China did a full lockdown of the city. What's even more is that COVID did not seem spread to much of other parts of the country.

> Look - I guess the European origin is possible. But it's a pretty out-there theory and it needs some pretty extraordinary evidence

I had been sceptical about the origin being anywhere outside of China as well initially. But given that more and more news of the possible early detection in COVID in much of Europe before December 2019 (France, UK, Italy and Spain), it does seem to me like there is a greater possibility that COVID could have originated from outside of China. Again, outside of Wuhan COVID was pretty much non-existant in other Chinese cities, even though Wuhan was only locked down late January 2020.

Basically, I'm not saying COVID-19 definitely came from Europe or didn't originate from China, all I've been saying is to have an open mind instead of immediate finger pointing, which as my original comment alluded to, was what the Australian government did.

[nl]

> Yes, I've read about the flu surveillance networks as well. However, these work well in theory, but not always in practice right? The past few years where I've seen the doctor in the UK, they've mostly dismissed anything wrong with me by just giving me some minor medication (this is probably in accordance to meet the waiting target)

I'm not a medical doctor, but the common cold and influenza have very similar symptoms to non doctors but doctors are good at telling them apart.

> Basically, I'm not saying COVID-19 definitely came from Europe or didn't originate from China, all I've been saying is to have an open mind

No you complained that no one is listening to you and you get downvoted.

Open minds are great. But stop sharing this nonsense until there is better evidence because at the moment it seems pretty weak.

[FooBarWidget]

Italy might have had a different strain that doesn't cause as severe symptoms. Even in China, the earliest case was retroactively traced back to October, and nobody noticed anything until December.

[nl]

It's pretty unlikely it was circulating then (why wasn't it detected) and there are much more likely explanations: contamination and the possibility of antibodies being from other related coronaviruses.

[gimboland]

"Spanish flu" didn't start in Spain, after all.