[socillion]

tl;dr:

> Our results based on his last know location in 2001 indicate that there is a 98% probability that he is in Kurram, Pakistan, and an 86.6% probability that he is within one of the seven FATAs.

> ... The hypotheses that Osama bin Laden is: (1) located in the Kurram region of Pakistan, (2) located in the city of Parachinar, and (3) at one of the three hypothesized buildings.

all 3 of those were false. Abbotatabad is in a different region, albeit being nearby geographically. The 89.9% accuracy quoted in the Science Insider article (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2510513) is based on the 270km distance from last known location, as shown in figure 2, with the theory that he is most likely to stay close to that point.

[camperman]

But as they say, "these methods are repeatable and could easily be updated with new information obtained from the US intelligence community on his last known location."

If you add what we know now about Bin Laden's courier - obtained by the intelligence community but naturally kept secret until now - their methodology would have nailed it down to just a couple of buildings in Abbottabad. That's very impressive IMHO.