[rayiner]

I understand the point mathematically, I think I'm talking about more of how the presentation of the error term is unintuitive to me. It makes sense to me to say "the predications were right, Trump just got lucky" when he outperforms the 95th percentile error bars in a state. He just got lucky. But if he outperforms it in a bunch of states because the polls didn't account for the fact that Trump supporters don't answer pollsters, then it doesn't make sense to me to say "the predictions were right because they factored in the chance that the polls hard correlated errors." I get that you've quantified the possibility that the polls are wrong in a systematic way, but I don't think that's the kind of possibility people are thinking of when they hear "there is a 5% chance Trump could still win."