[marshray]

Because the ones smart enough to organize, finance, and lead the operation will see it as a suicide plan, one that they won't be able to pass down to others. There will probably always be some dudes thinking of themselves as part of the franchise, but without photos and tapes they won't really know who they're taking orders from.

They'll have an authentication problem.

[intended]

They already see it as a suicide plan and manage their expectations from there.

[marshray]

I see OBL living in a cozy compound in a high class gated community among the military elite of Pakistan, not blowing himself up in a crowded unemployment line.

Some of his followers might see it too.

[intended]

Its a cause, and they accept that they may have to face a violent end to achieve it.

Their grunts may be more normal, but the ones on top are quite committed. Plus, dying for the cause ensures that you are rewarded, so its a pretty hard system to beat.

[memoryfault]

You are assuming that we are dealing with rational people who have rational thoughts. That couldn't be further from the truth. People who plan the mass-murder of others around the world are completely irrational, and I am very confident that there are tons of people with money, organization, and leadership that will step up and try to continue Bin Laden's efforts.

[danenania]

"People who plan the mass-murder of others around the world are completely irrational"

Clearly untrue. Perhaps it is easier for you to view an enemy as a lunatic monster bent on senseless destruction, but nearly every mass murdering organization in the world, whether it's a terrorist group like Al Qaeda or a military power like the US, has very concrete motivations and objectives for its actions, and is well versed in the logic of power. Realpolitik is deeply rooted in a rational worldview. You may disagree with the premises or the reasoning (I certainly do), but calling Al Qaeda 'completely irrational' is way off.

[swombat]

Actually, I think it's one of our great strokes of luck that the people who do this are largely insane and irrational, rather than careful, methodical, intelligent planners. For example, the shoe bomber, the underwear bomber, the guys who tried to drive a burning car through the too-narrow entrance of an airport, and so on. Most of these people are irrational, and that's incredibly lucky for us.

[khafra]

http://www.gwern.net/Terrorism%20is%20not%20about%20Terror.h...

[marshray]

I'm sure many will try to follow the old AQ and some will try to lead the new AQ. Probably someone claiming to be AQ will claim responsibility for some acts of terrorism.

But how will the bottom- and middle-tier guys they know they're taking orders from Bin Laden's designated successor and not agents of some country's (you name it) intelligence services?

It takes a nontrivial amount of planning, preparation, money, and coordination to pull off the kind of simultaneous suicide operation we saw in Sept 2001.

[Super_Jambo]

The idea that Bin Laden was remotely involved in most of the terrorist attacks over the last decade is hilarious.

It goes:

People get pissed off > They band together and share their anger > They decide to do something about it > They do something about it.

After the fact WE brand them as part of a large effective organization, 01/09/11 did require funding and planning due to the requirement to fly planes and the synchronization of multiple TEAMS.

The Madrid and London rail bombings required almost none (find people, make explosives, pick time/place, synchronize watches).

The activities in Iraq require almost no planning and really demonstrate that there is no globe spanning plan, if there was all the Iraqi suicide bombers would travel somewhere US interests can be attacked more easily. But they don't, ergo 'AQ' is actually a loose collection of people with similar motivation and very limited ability to communicate or distribute funds globally.