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by DufusM 5529 days ago
It will be very interesting to know if Pakistani military was completely unaware of his location until the US got this intel, or if this intel was obtained through a section of the military/govt who was somehow pressurized to give it up. There has always been some suspicion that there were elements in Pakistan sympathetic to Al Qaeda who were harboring bin Laden.
3 comments

The division in Pakistan is that the military is pro government (and vice verse, since this government came into power in a line of military coups) but that the ISI is anti. The army is more moderate, while the ISI is radical

The ISI overthrew the old government in Afghanistan by arming and training large groups of students from local pakistani madrasas. The student group after a few key wins in the south went on to be known as taleban (which is tajik for students)

These same factions within the ISI helped keep the Taleban in power, and assisted in aiding their escape back through Tora Bora and into Pakistan. I bet they tipped bin laden off to not staying in Wazrisistan and other tribal areas, since there was too much heat and the Pakistani military had some reach there.

I bet that the military in Pakistan knew a little (nothing about timing) but that the ISI were told nothing. The CIA have been in an active war with the ISI in Pakistan since 2001. There was the incident last year[1] where a CIA agent killed two ISI officers who were following him. I think that incident must be linked to bin laden tracking, since the agent - Raymond Davis, had been visiting the Pakistani countryside and taking photos of various compounds. When the ISI found out, they had him followed and intimidated him into leaving the country and minding their own business.

The CIA doesn't take shit and shot the other agents in their own country, then got Davies released by the Pakistani gov as part of a plea deal

I can't wait for the books and stories to come out about the last 2-3 years in Afghanistan and Pakistan - there is a real gap in public knowledge in terms of what has been happening there, and I bet some of the most interesting stories of the entire war on terrorism happen in that time.

The biggest problem always was that one of our key allies in the war had its own internal problems - and one side of our allie directly created and supported the very enemy we were fighting and continued to support them.

I don't doubt for a second that at least some elements of the ISI knew where bin laden was and protected him. The same thing happen in Serbia, with elements of the army and special police protecting Karadzic and Mladic, who is still at large.

[1] story on Raymond Davis, the CIA agent who shot two ISI agents in Pakistan last year: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/11/spy_games?p...

Excellent writeup. I agree, the last 2-3 years seem to have been real James-Bondian stuff in Pakistan.

Just to add to your comment: allowing the Kunduz Airlift (shortly after the invasion in 2001) was another of Bush administration's big mistakes. It allowed the top Taliban leadership to be airlifted out of Afghanistan, just when the NA troops had them surrounded. The seeds of today's insurgency were sown on that day; the top leadership survived, regrouped and still fight on today.

I think everyone knew where he was. Everyone knew where he was before, during and after 9/11. It's just time to play the Osama dead card now after war popularity went down
I believe they simply paid someone enough to give up the goods.