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by gruez 2053 days ago
Isn't that almost impossible? AFAIK the votes were approximately split 3 ways across 2 republicans and 1 democrat. That's the only reason why the democratic candidate was even ahead.
3 comments

No, there are 2 senate races, and each had a Republican and a Democrat as top two vote-getters. In one race, the Republican came on top and in the other the Democrat did, but neither winner reached the 50% threshold required by state law, so both races are going to runoff.

In the race the Democrat was leading, the Republican candidate had a history of minor (local) scandals, and only held the seat because she was appointed to it.

In the special election, the top 3 candidates (two republicans and one democrat) got ~80% of the vote. There were a lot of other democratic candidates that got a total of ~15% of the vote, so it's plausible that Warnock (the democratic candidate in the runoff) could win.
It's almost impossible for another reason: Dem turnout in runoff elections falls off precipitously.
Don't underestimate Stacey Abrams.

https://fairfight.com/about-stacey-abrams/

I don’t think Stacey Abrams has a great record at winning elections in Georgia. Do you think she’ll be helpful in these runoffs?
She doesn't need to get elected to help the movements.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/07/us/stacey-abrams-georgia-vote...

Well that was the case pre-2016 election. 2017-2020 Democrats did very well in special elections. It remains to be seen what happens to democratic enthusiasm under a Biden presidency.