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by NateEag 2049 days ago
I think he'd argue that "spiraling, multilateral violence" is not a civil war.

I could be wrong.

I think he's right, though, that mostly you need young men hopped up on testosterone for a conflict like a civil war to happen.

I think if you're over twenty-five, you're unlikely to volunteer for things that are likely to kill you, and that actually forms strong backpressure against large-scale violence in the US.

2 comments

Yeah but you don't just get to decide what words mean to suit your argument. The Spanish civil war and Syria are perfect examples of something that is widely considered a civil war and were multilateral.

Most civil wars start as multilateral conflicts. But once groups start getting picked off, the others begin combining into larger structure to preserve themselves and increase their chances of having a stake in victory. Just because you can't see the lines now does not mean they can't emerge after the conflict begins.

I do think the point about age is relevant. It's well know that things like crime decrease significantly with age. We also don't have much historical precedent for the kind of aged populations post industrial countries have.

Or maybe the definition of "Civil War" is more fluid than we think? I don't expect large-scale devastation and cities in ruins like in Syria, no.

But let's do some fun math. Roughly 70 million voted for Trump. Take away the housewives, the boomers, the Latinos in Florida and the less fanatical, more old-school Republicans that delivered Texas.

So let's say "only" a million are left out of the 70 and let's say that "only" a third of those - so 300k are willing to go to war for "their" President.

That's still huge trouble for this country. No, we won't be a failed state but a never-ending far-right insurgency that right-wing and foreign media constantly encourage and feed while the GOP publicly disavow is not something that we know how to deal with either.

The Left will be on the receiving end of it all by its very nature it will be reluctant to confront it beyond "let's talk about it".

> Or maybe the definition of "Civil War" is more fluid than we think?

Exactly this. Retroactively, we combine groups and intentions to simplify the narrative of most conflicts. With good reason, following the dizzying array of groups and actions involved in any conflict is impossible for all but the most determined and specialized scholars. The popular story has to be simplified.