[par]

I think most of us have been mentally doing these calculations (inaccurately!) in our heads these past two days. But this is so awesome!

Also, according to the trends here:

Alaska - Trump (3 votes)

Arizona - Trump (11 votes)

Georgia - Biden (16 votes)

North Carolina - Trump (15 votes)

Nevada - Biden (6 votes)

Pennsylvania - Biden (20 votes)

Winner would be Biden.

[fendy3002]

This show how our brain, despite being inaccurate can concious / subconsciously estimate those calculation. Our brain is amazing.

[qqqwerty]

The one thing that the table does not account for is the estimated partisan lean of the remaining votes (it sort of accounts for it by using the rolling mean of the previous reports, but that has issues).

Based on what I am seeing (reading twitter feeds of various analysts), AZ is leaning towards Biden because there are a few blocks of votes left that should lean much more towards Biden, which would prevent Trump from clawing back.

And Georgia is going to be so close that that it will go to re-count, so that one is probably best characterized as a coin flip.

Alaska is also a bit of a wildcard. From my understanding, none of the mail-in ballots have been counted and counting won't start till next week. So no one has any clue what the breakdown of those votes look like. But probably safe to assume Trump gets AK.

[the_only_law]

I doubt it will flip but the NYT map reports NC accepts mail in ballots till the 12th as long as they were postmarked by election day. It seems the counting will last quite a while.

[input_sh]

Quick calculation puts the final score at 295/243 for Biden.

To put that into perspective, less convincing than Trump's win in 2016, slightly more convincing than George W. Bush's re-election.

[throw0101a]

Using the word "convincing" in association with the Electoral College is a bit of a stretch (some would say ridiculous).

In 2016 Clinton was +2.9M votes, but 77K were in the "wrong" places (MI 10K; PA 44K; WI 23K) and so the minority candidate took the prize. Gore was +500K, but Bush got Florida by 537 votes, and that was the ball game.

Biden is +3.5M and things are still up in the air?

What a cockamamie system.

[akvadrako]

You shouldn't be looking at the popular vote if nobody is try to win the popular vote. It's like judging a basketball game by whichever team makes more passes.

[010101010101]

It’s more like judging a basketball game by points but ignoring the three point line.