| I actually think both are wrong (Taleb little bit less so) Because they are using empirical evidence (eg previous data) from 'experiments' that are effectively, unrelated to current situation. In my personal view, of course, Most previous elections in the last 30+ years, were between RINOs (Republican In Name Only) and Democrats.
Those are pretty much two fractions of the same bribe-taking, accountability-avoiding global Cartel. This Election is between the representative of citizens of the Republic (Trump) and the Cartel's candidate. This really did not happen from the time Bushes-then-Clintons took over both parties and turned them into co-existing fractions of one party. - - - Another analogy: we do not use same methods and design constraints when building anti-lock breaks control software, as we do when we build a daily revenue reporting system. - - - Frame of reference is different basically. And we do not know the tensor(s) that help us to move between the coordinate systems. - - - So we are not going to be able to use even 2016 polls (because then folks did not realize how Corrupt the RINOs+Dems are ) - - - My prediction is that Trump wins, GOP takes House and retains Senate. This will also be the largest percent wise vote for a GOP president, by Latino and African American voters. - - - Will check back in 9 days or so, to see if I was right ! Cheers. |