[rramach]

Nice summary of the Nassim-Nate debate. A formal analysis/discussion of election forecasting is in this paper: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/jdm2...

Edward says that Nate's prediction should be interpreted as: “If nothing else changes between now and the election, Joe Biden has a 85% chance of winning.” (Silver’s argument) But the problem is this prediction is not testable as election only occurs once at the end. Thus, one should use Nate's early predictions as pure entertainment.

Nate's final predictions show that they are well-calibrated across all of his political predictions but it is hard to estimate how accurate his model predictions are just for presidential elections given he has predicted only a few so far (unless one assumes all elections have similar uncertainty, which is clearly not true).