Believing that occurrence of an event with a forecasted 30% chance (or 2% chance) of occurring invalidates a model is so fundamentally a misunderstanding of the topic.
My DM: "You're going to try to hit this guy with your bare hands, even though you have +0 strength?"
Me: "Does a 17 hit?"
My DM: "His armor class was 16. It was supposed to be impossible for you to hit him with a d20. I have just witnessed the permanent death of the dungeon mastering industry in Faerûn. I will now cope on Twitter, goodbye."
Me: "Does a 17 hit?"
My DM: "His armor class was 16. It was supposed to be impossible for you to hit him with a d20. I have just witnessed the permanent death of the dungeon mastering industry in Faerûn. I will now cope on Twitter, goodbye."