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by 0xy 2054 days ago
>At least in Victoria, it seems like these predictions were unfounded.

I specifically said Australia, and your claim is incorrect according to the Australian Medical Association which forecasts 750-1,000 additional suicides for 5 years. [1] I can't find my original source for that figure but the AMA source still proves my point.

>https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7312512

Belgium did not have a Melbourne-tier lockdown at any stage. Why would it be comparable?

>But the specific points you're making are very dubious and also very recognisable as the effect of consuming specific kinds of media.

Ah yes, "specific kinds of media" like the Australian Medical Association. Those darned far right Murdoch-leaning doctors.

Your own source proves my point in fact. [2]

>"We still think we're going to see, over the course of a 12-month period … and then subsequent years, in the order of 30 per cent increase [in] suicide rates," he said.

30% of 3,048 is 914. 5 years of that is 4,572 additional suicides. I got the 5 years data point from the Australian Medical Association. [1]

[1] https://ama.com.au/media/joint-statement-covid-19-impact-lik...

[2] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-27/no-spike-in-suicide-r...

1 comments

> Belgium did not have a Melbourne-tier lockdown at any stage. Why would it be comparable?

What are you talking about? Yes we did. Curfew, essential services only, no non-essential travel, etc etc.

No you didn't. Belgium allows unrestricted domestic travel, Melbourne allowed 5km maximum. Additionally, Belgium allows funerals with up to 15 people which is still not the case in Melbourne. You even allow children's sporting events to continue, which was never the case in Melbourne. Further, your "close contact" rules are far more lenient than Melbourne's during peak Stage 4 lockdown.

Above all of that, Melbourne has had one of the longest lockdowns globally (surpassing Wuhan in length).