[borramakot]

(I have fairly minor quibbles with some of Nate's modeling ideas, but I broadly mean to be defending him).

I don't mean to imply 2016 was a black swan event- I agree that ~30% was probably as accurate a take as could be achieved (most evidence that seems reasonable to use indicated a lead for Clinton, but that it wouldn't be that surprising for that lead to be overcome). I just mean that the model assumes a fairly normal election environment, without like a huge attack on Election day or something on election day.

The N=3 comment was meant specifically for evaluating their calibration, not the data they use for their model.