[morbm]

I agree with everything you've said, except the last point. The federal government has shown that it will do what's necessary to maintain the status quo. As each COVID benefit runs out, another one is added to replace it. How long can they keep this going? I don't know, but I'm not willing to bet against all the people who own 1+ homes and the politicians who represent them.

I personally delayed buying a house in Toronto since 2013, thinking that it's too hot and it can't keep going up. I missed out massively. I don't recommend young Canadians to wait, but rather buy your primary residence if you can before you're completely priced out of the market. Just don't put all your investment into housing in the GTA, it may pop one day.

[amscanne]

Well it’s true that my advice is not pragmatic. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

But I wouldn’t encourage FOMO by saying “buy or you’ll be priced out!” since it’s just perpetuating the assumption that it’ll last forevér. It won’t. But it might last a while.

If you really want a house and can afford it, buy a house. But understand the reality of the financial risk. That’s not just coming from me, it’s coming the Bank of Canada and many other international organizations.