[eisbaar]

Fair enough, but then such headlines are misleading or useless, as they don't tell us anything about the rate.

They suggest melting ice in general is cause for concern, when really it is expected because of the ice age cycles.

Not saying the rate is not concerning, but then they should write about the rate, not about extreme measurements.

[gpm]

They do tell us about the rate, because the rate should be so slow as to not be perceptible.

[eisbaar]

Even if imperceptible slow (to our human senses), there would eventually a point of "ice free in October". A simple report about that event doesn't tell me anything about the rate.

[gpm]

One datapoint out of the norm would be explainable via noise, which is why the article is not about a single datapoint but the trend of all the recent datapoints being far below the norm. You're dismissing the article as a "simple report of an ice free october" when that's not what the article is.

It would not normally just be imperceptible slow to our human senses, it would normally be imperceptibly below the noise floor over our entire lifetimes.

[eisbaar]

First of all I criticize the alarmist headline. As for the article, I know see data goes only back 41 years. Is that even a meaningful geological timeframe?

Also there often seems to be the assumption that every year should be like average. In fact, average implies that some years should be below and some above.

Not saying there is nothing going on, but I don't automatically believe we are all going to die just from that article. (We as in mankind, every individual will of course die, unless there is a major scientific breakthrough).

[gitrog]

I find it absolutely incredible the mental gymnastics you're performing to conclude that your "common sense" take is a more accurate representation of reality than what these scientists are telling us.

> but I don't automatically believe we are all going to die just from that article.

Nowhere in the article does it say that. Nothing about this article is alarmist.

The simple truth is you've already made up your mind about climate change in general, and now you're just looking for tiny crumbs of evidence that researchers are slipping up somewhere, and criticizing anything that doesn't fit your notion of how this should play out.

[eisbaar]

I guess you could describe all science as "mental gymnastics". And all we humans have is common sense.

"The simple truth is you've already made up your mind about climate change in general, and now you're just looking for tiny crumbs of evidence that researchers are slipping up somewhere, and criticizing anything that doesn't fit your notion of how this should play out. "

That exact line could be handed back to yourself, except that you are sucking up all evidence that confirms your point of view.

[Udik]

A lot of things that used to be imperceptible are now perceptible thanks to precise measurements and systematic, complete and reliable written records. For example, an average change in temperatures of 1 degree over one century used to be imperceptible, now it's not.