[christkv]

Well I'm saying the Madrid numbers are not bearing out the prognosis you are outlining. It could be younger people are getting ill and that elderly people are better isolated but it's hard to know because they don't provide deaths by age groups.

[dragontamer]

My spanish isn't the best, but with assistance from Google Translate, I'm able to line up the death-charts with the cases charts.

https://imgur.com/cJw6dTk.png

If I'm reading that spanish correctly: its "Number of daily cases" (casos diarios) on the top, with "number of deaths" (Muertos) on the bottom, both in Madrid alone.

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The first wave is clearly wreaked by undertesting the population: Spain probably just didn't have enough tests to really count the cases back then. But for the 2nd wave (going until today), the death numbers clearly went up a few weeks after the case-count went up.

The case-count has begun to decline in Madrid, I think they're "over the hump" (knock on wood...). So looking forward, they're in a good spot.

But you can clearly see: when cases go up, deaths go up soon afterwards. When cases go down, the deaths go down soon afterwards.