Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by rjkennedy98 2069 days ago
Today, in California the percentage of white babies is ~27%. Today.

How on earth can you possibly say that in 2098 that "a huge percentage of white babies ... will be white"? Are there any demographic studies that say this? Where are you getting this info from? Rarely do projections even go that far.

Even US Census predictions have been off by huge margins within a few years because of unexpected declines in longevity, birth rates, ect.
2 comments
readarticle 2068 days ago
And without even looking I can guarantee you the biggest percentage is Hispanic, not that far away from 27%, and heavily outweighing Asian and black figures that are once again combined under 20% alongside immigration flows from LA that have remained static for 20 years.

It isn’t white vs minorities, it’s white “vs” a roughly equally sized Hispanic population in a few states that are already being consolidated because immigration flows have tapered, and, party evidenced by the article you posted, easily integrated into “whiteness”. No progress needed!

Haven’t even gotten into how California and Texas are the definitions of special cases in the USA being literally the most attractive states in the Union and also on the border. What are the proportions like in Utah, Kentucky, Pennsylvania etc?

Simple flows + demographic history mate, regional history is one of the big keys here and points the way.

link
dragonwriter 2068 days ago
> And without even looking I can guarantee you the biggest percentage is Hispanic, not that far away from 27%

I dunno, 20 percentage points higher makes a pretty loose definition of "not far away".

link
readarticle 2068 days ago
That’s indeed further than I thought, but only 6 points larger than the difference between white and Asian, and 4 points smaller than white - black.

Texas meanwhile with a 13 point difference but 22.5 between white and black, the next closest.

According to 2014-2016 March of Dimes data anyways

link
dragonwriter 2068 days ago
> Today, in California the percentage of white babies is ~27%.

No, its much higher, probably 70-75%.

Its just that most sources, despite using source data that gathers race and ethnicity separately, combines them into a single dimension which reports non-Hispanic whites as "white" and Hispanics of any race as Hispanic.

link